What is attention arbitrage on social media?

Attention arbitrage is the practice of accessing an audience at a cost significantly below the market rate for that audience. On social media, this happens when you reply to a high-visibility post and gain exposure to that post's audience for free. The equivalent audience through paid advertising would cost hundreds or thousands of dollars. The gap between the cost of a reply (a few minutes of time) and the cost of equivalent paid reach is the arbitrage opportunity.

Is replying better than posting for growth?

For most professionals with fewer than 10,000 followers, yes. The distribution challenge for original posts is severe: without an existing audience, even excellent content reaches only a few hundred people. Replies bypass the distribution problem by inserting your voice into conversations that already have large audiences. Once you have built a following through replies, original content becomes more viable because you have the audience to distribute it to.

How much time should I spend on replies versus original posts?

The optimal split depends on your current audience size. With under 2,000 followers, spend 80% of your time on strategic replies and 20% on original posts. Between 2,000 and 10,000 followers, shift to 60% replies and 40% posts. Above 10,000 followers, you can move to 40% replies and 60% posts. Replies should never drop to zero because they maintain relationships and surface new audiences.

Attention Arbitrage: How Replies Capture More Value Than Posts

Q: How does the Attention Arbitrage Model work?

The Attention Arbitrage Model measures the value of attention through three variables: reach (how many people see your content), relevance (what percentage of those people match your target audience), and conversion potential (how likely they are to take action). Replies score lower on reach than viral posts but dramatically higher on relevance and conversion potential because they appear in curated conversations with self-selected audiences.

Q: What is audience borrowing?

Audience borrowing is the process of gaining exposure to another account's followers by participating in their content's conversation. When you reply to a post from an account with 50,000 followers, a percentage of those followers see your reply, visit your profile, and potentially follow you. You have borrowed their audience without creating competing content or paying for access.

Ronnie Huss February 23, 2026 13 min read

Definition

Attention arbitrage is the practice of acquiring audience attention at a cost significantly below its market value. On social media, the most accessible form of attention arbitrage is strategic replying: contributing high-value comments to posts that already have large, engaged audiences. While the original poster invested time and reputation capital to build their audience, a well-crafted reply accesses a fraction of that audience at near-zero cost. This guide introduces the Attention Arbitrage Model, a framework for quantifying the value of reply-based growth, and provides the operational playbook for capturing attention through strategic replies on X and LinkedIn. Reply Engine is the tool that operationalises this model, delivering AI-crafted reply suggestions that maximise the attention value captured per minute invested.

The Economics of Attention

Attention is the fundamental currency of social media. Every post, reply, and piece of content competes for a finite pool of human attention. Understanding the economics of this attention is the foundation of the arbitrage opportunity.

On X, the average cost per thousand impressions (CPM) for promoted posts ranges from $4 to $12. On LinkedIn, sponsored content CPMs range from $8 to $30 depending on targeting specificity. These are the market prices for attention on each platform.

Now consider a reply. A thoughtful reply on a post with 50,000 impressions will be seen by approximately 5,000 to 15,000 of those viewers (depending on engagement and position in the thread). The cost is 60 to 90 seconds of your time. At the market CPM rate, that same reach would cost $20 to $180 in advertising spend. This is the arbitrage: you are accessing $20 to $180 worth of attention for the price of a minute.

For a deep analysis of attention economics, see The Economics of Social Media Attention.

The Attention Arbitrage Model

The Attention Arbitrage Model provides a framework for evaluating and comparing different growth activities based on the quality and cost of attention they generate.

Attention Value = (Reach x Relevance x Conversion Potential) / Time Invested

Reach: Number of people who see your content Relevance: % who match your target audience Conversion: Likelihood of profile visit/follow/DM Time: Minutes spent creating the content

Let us compare three growth activities through this model:

Activity	Reach	Relevance	Conversion	Time (min)	Attention Value
Original post (1,000 followers)	300	60%	2%	30	0.12
Strategic reply (50K impression post)	8,000	45%	5%	1.5	120
Paid promotion ($50 spend)	10,000	35%	1.5%	20	2.6

The strategic reply generates 1,000x the attention value of an original post and 46x the value of paid promotion. This is not a marginal advantage. It is an order-of-magnitude difference that explains why reply-first growth strategies outperform content-first and paid strategies for professionals building from zero to 10,000 followers.

Audience Borrowing: The Core Mechanism

The mechanism that makes attention arbitrage work is audience borrowing. When you reply to a post, you temporarily access the original poster's audience. You have not built this audience. You have not paid for it. You have borrowed it through the act of contributing to the conversation.

Audience borrowing is not parasitic. It is mutualistic. The original poster benefits from your reply because substantive comments increase their post's engagement, which drives more algorithmic distribution. You benefit from the exposure to their audience. The audience benefits from reading a richer conversation. All three parties gain value.

The full playbook for audience borrowing is covered in Audience Borrowing Through Strategic Replies.

Target Selection for Maximum Arbitrage

Not all posts offer equal arbitrage value. The highest-value targets share three characteristics:

High reach, low reply count. A post with 30,000 impressions and 15 replies offers more visibility per reply than a post with 30,000 impressions and 200 replies. You are competing for attention space, and fewer competitors means more visibility.
Audience-ICP overlap. A viral post about cat videos may have 500,000 impressions, but if your ICP is B2B SaaS founders, the relevance score is near zero. Smaller audiences with higher relevance generate better results.
Timing window. Posts in the first 60 minutes of their lifecycle offer the best arbitrage because early replies accumulate engagement while the post is still being distributed. A reply at minute 10 can ride the distribution wave. A reply at hour 6 arrives after the wave has passed.

Applying the Reply Velocity Framework

The Reply Velocity Framework, introduced in The Complete Guide to AI-Powered Reply Strategies, is the operational system for capturing attention arbitrage consistently. Each component of the framework optimises a different variable in the Attention Arbitrage Model:

Target Identification optimises Relevance by ensuring you reply to posts whose audiences match your ICP.
Timing Optimisation optimises Reach by ensuring your replies appear when post distribution is at its peak.
Value Density optimises Conversion Potential by ensuring your replies are compelling enough to drive profile visits.
Consistency Cadence creates compound returns over time (covered in The Compound Effect of Consistent Engagement).
Conversion Pathways maximise the downstream value of every profile visit by optimising your profile as a conversion page.

Content Leverage Ratios

The concept of content leverage measures the impact generated per unit of effort. Replies have the highest content leverage ratio of any social media activity because they piggyback on existing distribution.

Consider the leverage ratio: an original LinkedIn post takes 20 to 45 minutes to write and reaches your existing network. A strategic reply takes 1 to 2 minutes and accesses someone else's much larger network. The leverage ratio of replies to posts is typically 10:1 to 50:1 in terms of new audience exposure per minute invested.

For the complete mathematical framework, see Content Leverage Ratios: Why 1 Reply Can Outperform 10 Posts.

From Replies to Revenue: The Pipeline Path

Attention arbitrage is not about vanity metrics. The strategic value of reply-generated attention is its conversion path to revenue. The pipeline from reply to revenue follows a predictable sequence:

Reply generates profile visit. A compelling reply on a high-visibility post generates 2 to 8 profile visits per reply (depending on reply quality and post size).
Profile visit generates follow/connect. An optimised profile converts 15% to 25% of visitors into followers or connections.
Follow/connect enables DM. Once connected, you can initiate direct conversation. The Reply-to-DM Pipeline covers this transition in detail.
DM generates meeting. DM conversations initiated after comment-warming convert to meetings at 15% to 25%, versus 3% to 5% for cold DMs.

At scale, 15 strategic replies per day generate approximately 45 to 120 profile visits, 7 to 30 new connections, 2 to 5 DM conversations, and 0.5 to 1.5 meetings per week. This is pipeline generated from 20 to 30 minutes of daily activity. The Comment-to-Pipeline Flywheel, detailed in Converting LinkedIn Comments to Pipeline, operationalises this sequence.

The Compound Effect

The most under-appreciated aspect of attention arbitrage is the compound effect. Each reply does not just generate immediate attention. It builds cumulative recognition that makes every subsequent reply more effective.

On day 1, your reply is from a stranger. People scan it and move on. On day 30, your reply is from "that person who always has good insights." People pause to read it. On day 90, people actively look for your reply in the thread. They tag you in relevant discussions. They DM you unprompted.

This compound effect means that the attention value of your 100th reply is dramatically higher than the attention value of your 1st reply, even if the reply itself is identical in quality. The compound dynamic is fully explored in The Compound Effect of Consistent Engagement.

Building a System That Scales

Attention arbitrage works at scale when it is systematised. Ad hoc replying produces ad hoc results. A structured system produces predictable, growing returns.

The system components are:

Target list management. A maintained list of 30 to 50 accounts to monitor daily, refreshed monthly.
Daily reply workflow. A 20 to 30 minute block where you execute your replies, ideally during the peak posting window for your niche.
AI assistance. Reply Engine generates contextually relevant suggestions that reduce per-reply time from 5 minutes to under 60 seconds.
Performance tracking. The Engagement Compound Calculator projects long-term returns based on current engagement trends.
Periodic optimisation. Weekly review of which targets, reply types, and timing windows generate the best results.

The full operational guide for building this system is covered in Building a Reply System That Scales. The 30-day transformation playbook is in From Lurker to Authority in 30 Days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is attention arbitrage?

Accessing audience attention at a cost below market value. On social media, this means replying to high-visibility posts to reach their audience for free, rather than paying for equivalent reach through advertising.

How does the Attention Arbitrage Model work?

It measures attention value as Reach times Relevance times Conversion Potential, divided by Time Invested. Replies score lower on reach but higher on relevance and conversion, producing 10x to 100x better attention value per minute than original posts or paid promotion.

Is replying better than posting?

For professionals with under 10,000 followers, yes. Replies bypass the distribution problem by accessing existing audiences. Once you have built a following through replies, original content becomes more viable.

What is audience borrowing?

Gaining exposure to another account's audience by participating in their content's conversation. It is mutualistic: the poster gets better engagement, you get visibility, the audience gets richer conversation.

How much time should I spend on replies vs posts?

Under 2,000 followers: 80% replies, 20% posts. 2,000 to 10,000 followers: 60/40. Above 10,000: 40/60. Replies should never drop to zero.

Summary

Key Takeaways

Attention arbitrage exploits the gap between the cost of accessing an audience through replies (near zero) and the cost through advertising ($4 to $30 CPM).
The Attention Arbitrage Model: Value = (Reach x Relevance x Conversion) / Time. Replies generate 10x to 100x better value per minute than posts or ads.
Audience borrowing is mutualistic: the poster, the replier, and the audience all benefit.
Best targets: high reach, low reply count, strong ICP overlap, within the first 60 minutes of posting.
15 strategic replies per day generates approximately 7 to 30 new connections and 0.5 to 1.5 meetings per week.
The compound effect makes each reply more valuable over time as recognition builds.
Systematise with a target list, daily workflow, AI assistance, and performance tracking.
Reply Engine operationalises the Attention Arbitrage Model with AI-crafted suggestions for X and LinkedIn.